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Dollar falls but remains near record highs in European session

The US dollar eased slightly in early European trade on Monday, but still has demand for its safe-haven status on concerns about slowing global growth during the holiday season. of the United States is likely to limit volatility.

At 2:55 a.m. ET (0655 GMT), the Dollar Index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% to 104.810, not far below its two-decade high last month was 105,790.

The euro area, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada as well as the United States are likely to fall into recession in the next 12 months, analysts at Nomura said. As central banks are looking to restore their ability to control inflation, Nomura said in a note.

This view has been supported by recent economic data, such as US consumption , which grew much less than expected in May while GDPNow forecasts suggest the US economy could fell at a negative 2.1 year-on-year.

Even so, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week reiterated the Fed's stance on curbing inflation.

Investors will be closely watching Friday's nonfarm payrolls report to see how the labor market is doing. While the minutes of Wednesday's Fed meeting will provide some insight into how policymakers view the path of interest rates going forward.

Markets have priced in a 75 basis point increase in interest rates from the Fed this month after the US central bank delivered such a hike in June, the biggest increase since 1994.

EUR/USD added 0.1% to 1.0434, just slightly above May's 5-year low of 1.0349.

Germany reported its first monthly trade deficit since 1991 after exports unexpectedly fell in May. A deficit of 1 billion euros ($1 billion) shows that Germany's export-oriented economy is feeling the full impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-related lockdowns in China. .

GBP/USD was trading 0.2% higher at 1.2114, after hitting a two-week low of 1.1976 on Friday, USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 135.37, while AUD/USD gained 0.5% to 0.6849.

Australia's central bank meets on Tuesday and is expected to raise interest rates in a bid to rein in soaring inflation.

A Bloomberg survey detailed that all 26 economists, minus one, expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by half a percentage point on Tuesday to 1.35%. 

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